I have always particularly disliked Pascal’s Wager. First, on logical grounds, since,
like Anselm’s Ontological Argument, it can just as easily lead to the Great
Pumpkin or the Great Penguin, as to God as conceived by Christians (of whatever
stripe). Second, on
psycho-religious. Romeo does
not pitch upon Juliet by a process of totting up her good points, and
subtracting her bad (suitably weighted statistically or otherwise), comparing
the result with the similar figure for the other wenches in Verona, meanwhile
having his accountant double-check for accuracy, and then proceeding (with
degree X of Bayesian confidence) to the balcony of the lucky winner. Nor do such cold considerations
yield any sense of the Christian feelings and beliefs about God.
The tart-tongued psychologist-philosopher William James felt a similar aversion. In his essay “The Will to Believe”
(1896), he writes:
You probably feel that, when
religious faith expresses itself thus, in the language of the gaming-table, it
is put to its last trumps. … If we
were ourselves in the place of the Deity, we should probably take particular
pleasure in cutting off believers of this pattern from their infinite reward.
Nevertheless, I am uncomfortably aware of having embraced
something somewhat akin -- a leap of faith across a crevasse of uncertainty,
borne on the wings of reason -- in subscribing to the Nicene Creed.
Credo ut intelligam
|
But just now, perusing the thoughtful and chatty treatise of
a (non-religious) philosopher, this:
Very few people today are impressed
by Pascal’s wagers. But decision
theorists have long been using the arguments he invented … Pascal’s logic is sound. The
trouble is that his starting points
no longer apply for most of us.
They are no longer “live possibilities”.
-- Ian Hacking, An Introduction
to Probability and Inductive Logic (2001), p. 123
Bingo!
That crack about the Great Pumpkin
misses the mark, because that portly vegetable only comes into
perspective when seen from afar, from some philosopher’s distant star. For anyone else (with the
possible exception of Seneca the younger -- vide
“The Pumpkinification of Claudius”), that rotund worthy is not a Live
Possibility.
Our purpose here is not to argue for the intellectual
respectability of adhering to the Christian faith (or to that of Islam), but to
pursue the (psycho)logical point.
For, you, respected and right-thinking reader,
have almost certainly (if you are reading these words) made a similar bargain
yourself: in embracing the Religion
of Science.
Not knocking science, nor denying its partly empirical
character: ever since my
seventeenth year, my almost every effort has been bent in pursuit of scientific
understanding. But such is
not easily to be had, even for those who majored in scientific subjects at
top-flight colleges and never slacked
or looked back. Most of what
we accept, at least outside our own field of research, we largely accept on
faith. And indeed, even within
that field -- QFT or String Theory, say -- there are doctrines and assumptions you
just swallow and then push
forward, not really questioning these, trying to come up with something
publishable that hews to the Narrative, at least until you get tenure. "Allez en avant -- la foi vous viendra." (That celebrated epigram was actually not uttered by a prior or a bishop, but by d'Alembert, anent the mysteries of the calculus.) To reject science sweepingly is
intellectually disasterous; but
embracing it involves certain … wagers.
(For more on the subject, try this: Veracity and Verifiability.)
Bonus: For a relatively friendly look at Anselmian ontology, try this.
For a previously-unpublished tractate of the Saint:
http://worldofdrjustice.blogspot.com/2015/01/saint-anselms-proof-of-perfection-of.html
[Update May 2017] Late-breaking developments on the logico-philosophical front:
http://worldofdrjustice.blogspot.com/2017/05/a-side-bet-for-pascals-wager.html
Bonus: For a relatively friendly look at Anselmian ontology, try this.
For a previously-unpublished tractate of the Saint:
http://worldofdrjustice.blogspot.com/2015/01/saint-anselms-proof-of-perfection-of.html
[Update May 2017] Late-breaking developments on the logico-philosophical front:
http://worldofdrjustice.blogspot.com/2017/05/a-side-bet-for-pascals-wager.html
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